A Simple Way to Make Complex Decisions

I was once shown a very simple method for making decisions that I wanted to share with you. I’ve seen versions of this over the years called different things but they all follow this very straight-forward methodology.

You start by listing out all of your requirements. (Pro Tip: I’d recommend eventually getting your list into a spreadsheet as there are some simple calculations that will be done later.) If you end up with a number of requirements, you can organize them by logical categories. For example, if I was buying a car, I might simply list my 5 – 10 requirements – color, mileage, seating capacity, etc. If, however, I was choosing a new administrative system at work, I could easily have hundreds of requirements and might want to organize them into broader groupings like hardware, usability, vendor support, etc.

Once you’ve completed your initial list and organized it so it makes sense, you next walk through your list and do two things. First, determine if each requirement is a Must or a Want. If it’s a Must, then move it to the top of your list into a separate section. If it’s a Want, then assign it an importance score on a scale from 1 – 10 with 10 being the most important. This isn’t a ranked order so you can have multiple 10’s… just try to be realistic with how important each requirement is in relation to the others you come up with.

A quick note about using this technique in a group. It’s rare that you’ll find everyone has the same requirements or even the same sense of importance of those requirements. For the former, I tend to not weed out anyone’s suggestions but rather will include them all (maybe merging similar ones into a single item) and will then let the group’s voting speak to importance.

As for the scoring, the only that thing that’s imperative is agreeing on your Musts. That may take some discussion and compromise but I’ve generally found that groups can come to a good consensus here. For the Wants, however, you’ll likely see more biases come into play. If that happens and, after some discussion, you still can’t come to an agreement, simply use an average (i.e., I think Requirement A is an 8 while my colleague thinks it’s a 2. If neither of us will budget, then average it out to a 5 to reflect the differing opinions. Your compromise should not impact the final decision).

Below, I’ve created a simple decision matrix for buying a car, listing out my absolute Musts at the top (it has to fit the whole family and stay within our budget) and the weighted Wants below.

Now you’ll gather information. It might be research done directly by you or that you found from others or it could be responses from a RFP (Request for Proposal) where you solicit feedback from vendors about your requirements… or any combination of the above. Based on what you learn, you then give each requirement a score for each alternative you are considering. It’s then a simple formula to multiple the score earned against the importance weight and then total it up:

If you’re in a group and have the time, you can talk through everyone’s individual scores to see if you can come up with a consensus score. Failing that, or if time doesn’t permit, then again use an average to come to a final score for each requirement.

Your “winner” is the option that meets all of your Musts and which has the highest point score. Ironically, Car A initially seemed like a better fit for us as it scored 246 points compared to Car B’s 212… but since it was a two-seat sports car, it was out of the running since it could not fit the whole family (but, boy, it would have been sweet to drive). Of course, you’ll likely have more than two options and 8 requirements so make your spreadsheet as large as you need. Regardless of the size, however, the process is still the same and really straight forward.

Like so many things in life, you’re probably realizing that this falls under “it ain’t rocket science” but that doesn’t mean it’s not useful. The process of creating the spreadsheet itself is highly valuable as it forces you to think through what it is you’re after and how important each feature is. This approach also helps separate out strong emotional responses that can cloud our judgement (that little sports car would have been fun to drive and the sales person was pushing all the right buttons… but by sticking to this decision matrix, we avoided making a huge mistake that we would have regretted later).

Now, go ye forth and make well thought out, dispassionate decisions.

I’m pulling for you!

Leave a comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Create a website or blog at WordPress.com

Up ↑